Lebanon, Israel and Violence in North Africa
Vision
The new Government under Prime Minister Mikati will have a stable start. A junior political partner will create problems for the Government. It will not harm the political stability. Soon there will be a short shock wave in the country because of of the STL. It will not create big troubles and stability will come back. I dont see any real thread of internal conflict or civil war. The relationship between Opposition and Government will remain stable, within the normal tensions and conflicts. Saad Hariri: His position of now will not remain stable for too long. On two aspects of his life he will have to deal with difficulties. In his personal life he will find himself confronted with sad moments caused by someone close to him. In his political carrier will be one more set back. Najib Mikati: This time as Prime Minister will be stable and he will be able to keep himself in power. Nasrallah: He will be able to keep his strong position. The STL will not be able to do him big harm. He will get an unexpected support form abroad. In the coming months Israel will not provoke any direct conflict with Lebanon. A woman in Israel will take an important roll on the political stage and change the political landscape. Tensions between Israel and Palestine will grow. Hamas will loose some of its power. Egypt will face new problems and instability. . The Emirates and Gulf States will not experience the same problems as the North African countries. Muammar Al Ghadaffi in Libya will be able to control the chaos in the streets. The real thread for him is not coming from the people on the street. He may be betrayed by someone very close to him and either be exiled by his own people or even killed!. Instability in Egypt will maintain. Around coming elections there will be a new wave of violence. After all there will be a new pro western Government and not much of a real change. In Yemen the Government will be able to bring back stability to its country. Saudi Arabia will stay stable in a political sense. In the next years Saudi Arabia will take a new direction and changing its political Protecter, the USA. The USA will loose its control in the country. In Syria the political situation will remain stable. A strong economical alliance between Lebanon and Syria will be the case. Both countries will create a strong economical relationship and be able to leave many problems from the past behind. Until end of 2012 the relationship between Israel and Lebanon will slowly open. Communication and even some economical exchange between the two countries will be possible. Within the next 12 months won’t be an open conflict between Iran and Israel. A very important political figure from the US Government will visit Lebanon and will try to influence and implant ideas but will fail. Link to interview Femme Magazine
Outcome
March 21, 2011 First analysis. President Muammar Al Ghadaffi was able to take back the control over the streets. The upraising against him did fail! May 2, 2011 Second analysis. On March 23 for the first time after two years a bomb exploded near Jerusalem bus stop, killing one woman and 30 hurt. IAF increases attacks against Hamas controlled Gaza. On April 8, Hamas hit with a rocket an Israeli school bus. Israel struck back, killing Hamas militans and civilians. According to many political experts, Hamas is weaken by Syrian unrest. September 3, 2011 Yemen updating After an assassination attempt against President Ali Abdullah Saleh the country is ruled by the Vice President. At this point the country is more or less peaceful, the Government was able to keep the power and bring back stability. September 25, 2011 Israel updating Shelly Yachimovich got elected chairwoman of Israels Labor Party. She stands for youth, new generation and is talking about bringing a new wind to Israels political landscape.
October 21, 2011 Libya updating.
Muammar Al Ghadaffi got killed. November 2, 2011 Third analysis The Government under PM Mikati is doing its job. Problems have been around but nothing really harmful. The shock wave came when pictures of individuals and members of Hezbollah movement were published. The four men have been accused by the STL of being involved in the Hariri killing. After some minor unrest and accusations, the situation did calm down. Saad Hariri hasnt been in the country for months. His life became difficult; he was worried about his security and left the country. Without doubt, his political career did suffer a setback. Najib Mikati is still in power and doing his job. Nasrallah is very strong and in power. Until now, the STL did not harm him too much. Egypt faces many problems; violent, ethical and religious conflicts create instability. Besides minor uprisings in Bahrain, the Gulf States had no real conflicts going on. In Yemen, the President is still in power. The country still is experiencing unrest but the situation is not like that in Egypt or Libya. President Bashar al-Assad is still in power. The country is suffering many clashes between the Government and anti-Government movements but now, the Government never came even close to be overthrown. Updating, November 22, 2011 Ten days before Parliamentary elections are starting in Egypt, a new wave of bloody confrontations killed in three days more than 24 people. Monday, November 21 the Government stepped down. As foreseen, closely to the elections Egypt is facing instability and violence. December 2, 2011 Lebanon / Syria updating Lebanon is among Iraq and Yemen on Syrias side, voting in the Arab League against sanctions against Syria. Officially Lebanon is giving Syria its support and moving strongly towards its old enemy. February 25, 2012 Yemen updating Hadi sworn in as Yemen's new president Former vice president assumes top office, formally ending Saleh's decades-long rule in ceremony attended by predecessor. (Quote aljazeera.com) The Government was able to get back control and stay in office.
October 22. 2013 Saudi Arabia going on distance to the USA
The kingdom has been angered by the increasing rapport between Washington and Iran.
Go back
Outcome
March 21, 2011 First analysis. President Muammar Al Ghadaffi was able to take back the control over the streets. The upraising against him did fail! May 2, 2011 Second analysis. On March 23 for the first time after two years a bomb exploded near Jerusalem bus stop, killing one woman and 30 hurt. IAF increases attacks against Hamas controlled Gaza. On April 8, Hamas hit with a rocket an Israeli school bus. Israel struck back, killing Hamas militans and civilians. According to many political experts, Hamas is weaken by Syrian unrest. September 3, 2011 Yemen updating After an assassination attempt against President Ali Abdullah Saleh the country is ruled by the Vice President. At this point the country is more or less peaceful, the Government was able to keep the power and bring back stability. September 25, 2011 Israel updating Shelly Yachimovich got elected chairwoman of Israels Labor Party. She stands for youth, new generation and is talking about bringing a new wind to Israels political landscape.
October 21, 2011 Libya updating
Muammar Al Ghadaffi got killed. November 2, 2011 Third analysis The Government under PM Mikati is doing its job. Problems have been around but nothing really harmful. The shock wave came when pictures of individuals and members of Hezbollah movement were published. The four men have been accused by the STL of being involved in the Hariri killing. After some minor unrest and accusations, the situation did calm down. Saad Hariri hasnt been in the country for months. His life became difficult; he was worried about his security and left the country. Without doubt, his political career did suffer a setback. Najib Mikati is still in power and doing his job. Nasrallah is very strong and in power. Until now, the STL did not harm him too much. Egypt faces many problems; violent, ethical and religious conflicts create instability. Besides minor uprisings in Bahrain, the Gulf States had no real conflicts going on. In Yemen, the President is still in power. The country still is experiencing unrest but the situation is not like that in Egypt or Libya. President Bashar al-Assad is still in power. The country is suffering many clashes between the Government and anti-Government movements but now, the Government never came even close to be overthrown. Updating, November 22, 2011 Ten days before Parliamentary elections are starting in Egypt, a new wave of bloody confrontations killed in three days more than 24 people. Monday, November 21 the Government stepped down. As foreseen, closely to the elections Egypt is facing instability and violence. December 2, 2011 Lebanon / Syria updating Lebanon is among Iraq and Yemen on Syrias side, voting in the Arab League against sanctions against Syria. Officially Lebanon is giving Syria its support and moving strongly towards its old enemy. February 25, 2012 Yemen updating Hadi sworn in as Yemen's new president Former vice president assumes top office, formally ending Saleh's decades-long rule in ceremony attended by predecessor. (Quote aljazeera.com) The Government was able to get back control and stay in office.
October 22. 2013 Saudi Arabia going on distance to the USA
The kingdom has been angered by the increasing rapport between Washington and Iran.