Lebanon's revolution
November 2, 2019
(Foto: lebanon.revolution_)
Lebanon’s future for the next 10 to 12 months
The government will go on with compromises, showing good will to the people.
On the other hand, I can’t see major changes in the political structure of the country.
Some political leaders will go, but in general and behind the scene no real changes on the horizon.
The revolution will succeed for some time. Unity will be supported from clerical institutions. Later, there is an imminent danger, the revolution will turn violent. If both sides are not very careful, there will be blood on the streets and organizers of the revolution will be "brought to justice”.
I can’t see a civil war in the next 10 to 12 months.
Economically the situation will worsen but not in a full economically collapse. Support will be given from abroad to prevent such a meltdown. The situation will be used to put the country under more control.
The mainly Sunni faction around Hariri will be able to keep their influence. On a legal or parliamentarian level they will lose influence.
The mainly Shia faction around Hezbollah as well will be able to keep their influence. Complications will come up with their supporters from abroad.
No major conflict between those two factions on the horizon.