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The future of Transnistria

September 25, 2024



During my visit to Moldova, I took the opportunity to explore the “country” of Transnistria. Back in Moldova I was asked to do predictions for Transnistria:


The current political situation in Transnistria will mostly remain unchanged for the next one to two years. We can expect no significant resolutions; instead, internal political stagnation and conflicts will persist.


Religious authorities will attempt to seek solutions, but these efforts will prove fruitless. Similarly, political and diplomatically negotiations won’t bring any positive results.


No Military intervention, neither from Russia nor from NATO nations.


In the coming years, there will be serious, albeit short-lived, attempts to engage with Moldova, but these efforts are destined to fail.


The collective Aura of Transnistria evokes parallels with Kosovo, the Palestinians, and the Kurds—essentially pawns in geopolitical power struggles, with little prospect for genuine sovereignty and a status that is perpetually questioned. To reassure the inhabitants of Transnistria, I can affirm that their collective national Aura is more akin to that of Kosovo than to that of the Kurds or Palestinians.

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