Same President - How to waste energy and money on a referendum
The upcoming referendum will be a major test for the nation. While the election is being heralded as an important step for the country, it will ultimately fail to fulfil expectations.
With deep-seated internal divisions persisting long after the vote is cast, a scenario is emerging in which the electoral process resembles a cosmetic procedure - but on the surface, it masks a deeper turmoil.
Looking to the future: economic crisis intensifies
The country faces considerable financial challenges over the next three years. The real reason for the difficulties lies not in external military threats, but in an economy that is under pressure. The impact of the conflict will not be felt through open warfare - as in Ukraine or the Balkans - but through simmering unrest at home.
We can expect a domestic political upheaval reminiscent of a Maidan-like movement characterized by economic and political unrest without military confrontation.
In the two decades that I have lived and worked in crisis-ridden countries, I have repeatedly encountered this scenario. The country is a pawn in a larger proxy conflict in which the electoral processes are nominal at best. These elections are likely to lack real substance as they are overshadowed by powerful geopolitical maneuvering.
Ultimately, it is the people who will bear the brunt of these circumstances. The harsh reality remains: The interests of the EU, the US and Russia are not compatible with the welfare of the people. In the grand scheme of geopolitics, the plight of the individual citizen remains an unfortunate afterthought.
Comments